Weekly Market Commentary

August 17, 2026 | LPL Research

Global business activity is showing signs of stabilization, but beneath the surface, the world economy remains divided. Growth momentum has improved in several major developed economies, led by a stronger U.S. expansion and a tentative recovery in parts of Europe, while activity across several large emerging markets has cooled from the rapid pace seen earlier this year. Against this backdrop, investors must also contend with lingering vulnerabilities in the global financial system, including Japan's outsized role as one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities, a reminder that shifts in monetary policy or investor behavior abroad can have far-reaching consequences.

August 10, 2026 | LPL Research

The municipal bond market enters the second half of 2026 in a familiar but underappreciated position: absorbing record supply, supported by resilient demand, and operating under a Fed that we expect to remain on hold for the balance of the year. That combination doesn't produce dramatic price returns, and it doesn't need to. With tax-equivalent yields for investment-grade municipals still sitting in the top quartile of their 10-year history, this is a market where the coupon does the heavy lifting. For investors who have spent the last several years waiting for a "better entry point," the second half of 2026 is a reminder that in fixed income, the entry point is the yield. And the yield remains generous.

August 3, 2026 | LPL Research

The S&P 500 settled a whirlwind July moderately lower but maintained healthy year-to-date gains. Just one month into the second half, some of our key market themes cited in LPL's Midyear Outlook 2026 wasted no time making themselves known.

July 27, 2026 | LPL Research

A useful way to think about the return math is to build a composite cloud ROIC using the previously defined building blocks of our aggregated “average hyperscaler cloud business.” The numerator is relatively straightforward: cloud segment operating income, tax-adjusted into an estimate of net operating profit after tax (NOPAT). The denominator, invested capital, is the “deployed infrastructure asset” base, which includes estimated net PP&E and operating lease ROU assets utilized in the hyperscaler cloud business. 

July 20, 2026 | LPL Research

What do we know about China’s economy? China’s June trade data offered another reminder that the country’s growth story remains uneven beneath the surface. Crude oil imports fell sharply, dropping to their lowest level in nearly a decade as geopolitical disruptions in the Persian Gulf collided with softer domestic demand. The decline suggests refiners remain cautious about inventory accumulation, particularly given uncertainty surrounding shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for roughly half of China’s crude imports. While markets continue searching for signs that Beijing may step in to rebuild strategic stockpiles, the latest figures point to a demand backdrop that remains sluggish despite ongoing policy support measures.

July 13, 2026 | LPL Research

Coming into 2026, we expected inflation to move closer to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, the Fed to cut rates by roughly 75 basis points (bps), and Treasury yields to drift lower. Instead, the first half delivered three stress tests in rapid succession: a leadership change at the Fed, a geopolitical shock that sent oil prices and yields surging, and an AI buildout that is having a measurable impact on the corporate bond market — with the Fed leadership transition among one of our key themes for the balance of the year. 

June 15, 2026 | LPL Research

The U.S. initial public offering (IPO) market appears to be entering one of its most consequential periods in years. After a long drought following the 2021 issuance boom, a healthier macro backdrop, improved risk appetite, and a long queue of mature private companies have reopened the new-issue window. The potential 2026 class is unusual not only because of the number of companies considering public listings, but because several would be large enough to matter for major equity indexes, passive fund flows, and the broader market narrative around artificial intelligence (AI).

June 8, 2026 | LPL Research

Since the onset of the Iran conflict (through last Friday’s close), the U.S. Treasury curve has experienced a meaningful bear flattening with front end yields rising more than back-end yields. The 10-year Treasury yield has increased by approximately 60 basis points (bps), while the 2-year yield has risen by 77 bps. These moves represent a swift repricing that incorporates several factors: rising inflation expectations tied to energy price volatility, an increase in compensation demanded for uncertainty (known as term premia); and a fundamental reassessment of the path for short-term policy rates.

June 1, 2026 | LPL Research

Before digging into what we think this stock market is worth, it’s important to recognize that valuations have not historically been good timing tools. There is essentially no correlation between valuations and where stocks will go over the subsequent year. However, P/Es have value as a basic valuation tool, especially as it pertains to predicting long-term returns. 

May 26, 2026 | LPL Research

At the start of the 21st century (approximately 2002–2012), commodities broadly went through a massive investment cycle. Given the cycle drove run-ups in the price of most every commodity market, including both agricultural and non-agricultural commodities, this cycle is commonly referred to as a commodity “super-cycle.” This period was powered by increased demand for commodities broadly from emerging markets, primarily China’s rapid industrialization and urbanization at the time. Increased demand drove prices higher, as the supply impulse couldn’t respond quickly enough.

May 18, 2026 | LPL Research

The Middle East war is expected to exert a modest but meaningful drag on near-term growth through renewed supply chain disruptions, higher shipping costs, and increased uncertainty around energy and trade flows. While the shock does not appear large enough to derail expansion, it will likely weigh on activity at the margin, particularly in trade-sensitive sectors and industries reliant on timely delivery of intermediate goods like fertilizer and steel. 

May 11, 2026 | LPL Research

As of early May 2026, the Fed stands on the cusp of one of its more significant leadership transitions in recent memory. Jerome Powell’s term as chair concludes on May 15 after guiding the central bank through the post-pandemic inflation surge and a rate-cutting campaign seemingly on hold, and Kevin Warsh — a former Fed governor, investment banker, and vocal critic of post-2008 monetary policy — appears poised for confirmation. Powell has signaled he will remain on the Board of Governors for an "indefinite period" until the ongoing investigation concludes with finality, providing continuity but explicitly declining any “shadow chair” role. His role as Fed Governor ends January 2028.