Blog

Well it was the end of August and some friends convinced me to go on a float trip. I’m not sure if they invited me because they knew I’ve never been floating or if they wanted to see if I would show up in a collared golf...

Markets Tend To Bottom Before The Fundamentals

Ken South

Wednesday, May 3, 2023

The Fed's job was never going to be easy. Taming inflation is not something it's particularly good at. It tends to raise rates too far, throw the economy into a tailspin, hit the gas again, and surely needs to squash inflation in a secon...

The thought of retiring may be intimidating for anyone—but if you own your own business, handing your "baby" to new owners might be enough to stop you in your tracks. What might you do to set your successor up for success? What...

Tighter Credit Adds Further Pressure On Small Businesses

Ken South

Wednesday, April 26, 2023

The economy seems to be humming along OK. Not too hot and not too cold. The raising of rates by the Fed has been very abrupt and due to the pain it has created within the financial system it is what all remember. But, so was the rate...

Retirement is an exciting time, but it can be tough to leave behind the safety net of a stable income or the work routine you’ve followed for decades. Many seniors who reach retirement age end up working part-time; this can be...

Getting laid off can be a very difficult and emotional experience, especially if you have been with the company for a long time. However, it is important to remember that there are ways to make the most out of this situation,...

A Bullish Market Despite Persistent Fear Of A Bear

Ken South

Wednesday, April 19, 2023

Despite the mild pullback on Thursday of last week, last week once again managed to put in a positive return. Four of the past five weeks have been up weeks even though the institutional investors have been more negative and have a...

Listening to John Coltrane or other favorite jazz musicians is like watching the leaves swirling through the city streets on an autumn day. The cedar and oaky smoke smell from a fireplace can spark a feeling of nostalgia that takes you...

Can the Fed Adjust its Inflation Target and Adopt a New Normal?

Ken South

Wednesday, April 12, 2023

This week marks the first week of earnings reports for Q1 of this year. These are clearly important numbers as they are a reflection of the economic prosperity of companies individually. It will be interesting to see if the numbers are...

Choosing a financial professional is a major decision. Finding someone you trust enough to manage your money and your future may feel like a nerve-wracking choice. Fortunately, by doing some preliminary research and asking tough...

S&P Makes Headway As Data Show April Likely Favorable

Ken South

Wednesday, April 5, 2023

At the start of 2023, the street consensus was bearish on equities; both institutional investors and the man/woman on the street were not excited about the year to come. I began 2023 by giving historical statistics of what changes were...

Everyone needs to have some level of financial literacy to help manage their finances. However, financial literacy becomes even more crucial when you're a business owner. You need to become familiar with common terminology and business...

In The Banking Crisis of 2023, There's Plenty of Blame to Be Shared

Ken South

Wednesday, March 29, 2023

In only two weeks, the stresses to the markets have gone from inflation and the possibility of recession due to higher interest rates to an utter banking crisis. In my last two letters, I addressed the banking issues and attempted...

When you own a business and have employees, becoming disabled impacts you and your family and your employees and business. As a business owner, you may be responsible for the day-to-day operations, ensuring the business' finances are...

‘Big Daddy’ Federal Reserve Comes To The Rescue… Again

Ken South

Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Given the gravity of the situation in our global banking system, I am going to expound a little bit more on Friday’s note. To say that the last few weeks have been action-packed in finance land would be a gross understatement...

A Banking Kerfuffle And The Fight To Thwart Inflation

Ken South

Friday, March 17, 2023

As interest rates have risen over the past couple of years, bond prices have dropped since all those bonds yielding, say, 1% when issued back when rates were lower are no longer attractive compared to the higher-yielding bonds of today.

The SECURE Act 2.0 was signed into law on December 29, 2022, which will work to close the retirement savings gap with over 90 new retirement provisions. The bill includes a few specific changes that are significant for small...

Up Early After Down Year Suggests 'Buy-The-Dip' March, April

Ken South

Wednesday, March 8, 2023

With February in the rear-view mirror and the rest of the statistics still firmly in place, we can make some judgments about what comes next. The next eight weeks is a time for “buying the dip,” as far as historical data is concerned.

Some older workers return to the workforce or continue to work well past retirement age. Workers over 50 may change jobs while working in the same occupation or field later in life to continue their careers for longer. Working while in...

Stuck Between A Bear And A Bull

Ken South

Wednesday, March 1, 2023

We are at the end of the second month of the new year. A year that has started far differently than 2022. As of last Friday (2/24), 94% of the S&P 500's companies had reported their Q4 2022 earnings. Here’s what we know.

Pension plans are still offered at many types of employers today. A pension plan is an employer-sponsored retirement savings plan the employer contributes toward to fund their employees' future retirement.There are two types of pension...

Late-February Lull Looms As Inflation, Wage Pressure Persist

Ken South

Wednesday, February 22, 2023

The last two weeks have not been a continuation of the New Year celebration that has been experienced in the first six weeks of 2023. There has been some “hotter” inflationary economic data lately, and it is too easy...

The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act of 2019 – the SECURE Act – was passed by Congress and signed into law on the days leading up to Christmas 2019.Incorporated into a broader 2020 fiscal year...

Too Early To Call A Bull, But Markets Have Played Ball In 2023

Ken South

Wednesday, February 15, 2023

Investors should be feeling pretty good at this point. In California, the rain storms seem to have passed (for now at least), Super Bowl LVII was filled with drama and decided by a last-second field goal, and bonds, US Stocks, and...

What is it?A qualified domestic trust (QDOT) allows a U.S. citizen spouse to transfer assets to a noncitizen spouse without having to pay federal gift and estate tax at the time of the transfer.Generally, spouses are treated as one...

January Jobs Report Catches Economists In Groupthink Trap

Ken South

Wednesday, February 8, 2023

If you pay any attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments you’ll know that his primary measurement of progress against inflation is by looking at the domestic labor market and the cost thereof. Going into...

With the new year right around the corner, you may be wondering what’s in store for the economy in 2023. To help ensure your financial success, here are some insights into the recent impacts of inflation.What happened in...

Weaker Inflation, USD Data Lend Support For Rate Hike Easing

Ken South

Wednesday, February 1, 2023

I have been able to understand how negative the equity markets of the world can be by listening to CNBC in the mornings, at about 5:15 west coast time. When the commentators are interviewing random politicians or business...

Economists have shaped the modern world in many ways. Governments make policy choices in response to the data that we produce about things like GDP and inflation. Social media companies use our insights about human behavior to create...

Stock markets in the U.S. and around the globe turned in a rotten 2022, with fears of inflation, rising rates, and supply chain issues swirling around the economy and markets all year.Seven interest rate hikes from the Fed, 40-year...

Equity Markets Rise As Falling Earnings Still Eye Recession

Ken South

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

This year has started quite well. In the first week and a half, the equity market was going up in an organized and methodical fashion. Then came last week when the indexes had poked their noses above their respective 200-day...

Women are more vulnerable to financial insecurity because they typically live longer, have more breaks in their employment and earn less. Making financial decisions is therefore crucial for all women, from Social Security to the rest of...

Two Weeks In And 2023 Already Looks Different Than 2022

Ken South

Wednesday, January 18, 2023

With the first two weeks of trading for 2023 in the books, and deep scares from 2022 deeply engrained in memory, we are welcoming how this year is starting. Opportunities seem to be presenting themselves in both the fixed-income and...

After-tax funds can be segregated from other funds in the account and transferred directly to a Roth IRA. In fact, it would be a mistake not to. (Don't confuse after-tax contributions to a regular 401(k) with contributions to a Roth 401(k),

The Fed Still Appears to Hold All of The Cards

Ken South

Wednesday, January 11, 2023

There is an age-old saying that I have often quoted in my weekly missives, “Don’t fight the Fed.” This still seems to be holding. They have both the rule book and the printing press. They can raise or lower interest...

What are business life cycles, and what is their relationship to business planning? Generally, businesses pass through three stages before reaching the final stage of decline. The time it takes to reach or to pass through each stage...

Incoming Labor Data Sets the Tone for the Year 2023

Ken South

Wednesday, January 4, 2023

The end of a calendar year should have little influence on the directional move of markets, yet tax considerations and general emotional motivations often exaggerate moves at the turn of the year. Several key economic events...

When a spouse dies, the emotional magnitude of the loss can send your life reeling. It can also affect your finances. You are pressured to do many things all at once. It is best to leave off bigger long-term decisions until later, when...

Good Riddance 2022, Welcome 2023

Ken South

Wednesday, December 28, 2022

The stock markets of the world are struggling into the close of 2022, capping what has proven to be a horrible year for equities. In our view, US core inflation has apexed (mid-2022) and now running at closer to 2%. But due to lags in...

As the calendar gets ready to turn to 2023, there are a lot of economic metrics worth paying attention to, especially as each will have an impact one way or another on our investments. But whether or not markets will reverse course and...

Bringing 2022 Home: Trends To Watch In The New Year

Ken South

Wednesday, December 21, 2022

As we come to the end of 2022, the US equity market (as measured by the S&P 500) appears locked in a range of 3800-4100. The question we’re asking now is what is it that will cause a move out of this range in 2023? At present,...

The 2022 FIFA World Cup kicked off on November 20th when host-country Qatar lost to Ecuador 2-0, becoming the first host country in the competition’s 92-year history to lose its opening game.If you did not know, the FIFA World...

What is gifting? Transfer of ownership without receiving value. Broadly speaking, a gift occurs when you transfer something (e.g., your business interests) to another party without receiving something of at least equal value in return.

Unresolved Policy Issues Leave Markets with More Questions

Ken South

Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Predicting market values in 2023 is tougher than normal. To give a brief recap; COVID declines led to a substantial bounce in the markets following the March 2020 low, this was then followed by an additionally strong market in 2021,...

Any small-business owner could attest that everyone needs a break sometimes. And the holiday season may provide an opportunity to take a few days (or longer) for yourself—whether traveling, spending time with the family, or...

When Will This Correction End?

Ken South

Wednesday, December 7, 2022

Investors are incredibly inventive in their thoughts and solutions, which is why all crisis situations get dealt with. When all seems lost, the market finds a low and starts higher once again. The pain point needs to become enough...

Here are some things to consider as you weigh potential tax moves between now and the end of the year.

Bear Market Rallies Are Great Exercises in Prudence

Ken South

Wednesday, November 30, 2022

This week is very interesting as it follows a Holiday week with extremely low volume yet a lot of information.  The data from last week seems to be setting the stage for year-end. To begin with, I wanted to go over what we got...

Hurricane Ian barreled ashore with winds of up to 150 mph (240 kph) on Florida’s southwest coast on Sept. 28, 2022.The storm’s powerful winds and torrential rains reduced entire communities to rubble, killing more than 120...

The New Economy in the Wake of the Pandemic

Ken South

Wednesday, November 23, 2022

It doesn't seem to feel like it has not even been two years, but there’s no uncertainty for me in believing that locking down the economy to “slow the spread” of coronavirus was a massive mistake. There are no...

Why would you want to give away your business?Sometimes better to gift than sell due to tax lawThere may be personal (nontax) reasons why you would want to gift some or all of your business interests. There is also a good reason built...

Is A Market Bottom Confirmed By Global Interest Rate Moves?

Ken South

Wednesday, November 16, 2022

We knew that last week would be quite a week with the Election on Wednesday and CPI released on Thursday. Not to be outdone, we also had the crypto disaster of FTX going on at the same time. At the end of the week, we had a massive...

The holiday season means shopping is at its peak, and while many consumers are familiar with Black Friday and Cyber Monday, they may be less familiar with Green Monday. Held on the second Monday of December, Green Monday is another...

Yes! The Election Is Finally Over...Now What?

Ken South

Wednesday, November 9, 2022

As I write this note on Mondays, Election Day is Tuesday and will bring results for key Senate, House, and Governors races from around the country, plus local legislative races and more. For the federal races, we...

Shoppers spend nearly $20 billion every year on Small Business Saturday. If you’re not familiar with this particular holiday, it takes place in the U.S. the day after Black Friday in November, and a few days before Cyber Monday...

Mid-term Makeover: Will Markets Rally Post-Election?

Ken South

Wednesday, November 2, 2022

With a surprising level of consistency over the past 100 years or so, stocks have followed a broad pattern that coincides with presidential terms. The months leading up to midterm elections have generally been the worst in what is...

The term HENRY (High Earners Not Rich Yet) refers to individuals who have the potential to become wealthy in the future because of their income. These individuals or families earn between $250,000 and $500,000 per year and are between...

Will The Markets Be High On Tricks Or Treats This Halloween?

Ken South

Wednesday, October 26, 2022

At present, it isn't entirely clear whether we are, or are not, in a recession. The first two quarters of this year had negative GDP growth, which usually marks a recession. Now we have politicians debating the very definition of recession

Sidelined Capital Keeps Its Eyes on Bottom Indicators

Ken South

Wednesday, October 19, 2022

Before Monday and Tuesday of this week, we have had six times where the markets tried to rally only to reverse and decline once again.Thursday of last week appeared to be a bit different in that it was what is called a "positive...

An Interest Rate Top Could Telegraph A Market Bottom

Ken South

Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Looking back to the start of October, Monday, and Tuesday of last week were clearly different from what we experienced in the month of September. The 4% level on the 10-Year US Treasury yield is sort of looking like a line in the sand...

This is What a Sale on Wall Street Feels Like

Ken South

Wednesday, October 5, 2022

“Unpredictable price movements are part of long-term investing, which is distinct from the concept of risk.” I meant that when I wrote it in September, and the actions of late cannot be any clearer evidence of this. Since...

Desperate Times Call For Desperate Measures... Is That The Case Now?

Ken South

Wednesday, September 28, 2022

To say that 2022 has been a tough year would be a gross understatement. From remnants of COVID mandates to delayed air travel to spiking interest rates, this has been a year of numerous and never-before-seen combinations of issues...

When it comes to planning for your retirement income, it's easy to overlook some of the common factors that can affect how much you'll have available to spend. If you don't consider how your retirement income can be impacted by...

Fed Up: Market Lows

Ken South

Wednesday, September 21, 2022

At present we are clearly in a battle. On one hand, we have the Federal Reserve trying to rein in inflation by raising interest rates and on the other side, we have the economy as measured by the GDP and the stock market. The Fed keeps...

What health care benefits are available in retirement?Health care in retirement is available from many sources. Government programs (such as Medicaid and Medicare) offer numerous health care benefits. However, you may need to purchase...

Market Showing Impressive Strength; Now Needs to Hang On

Ken South

Wednesday, September 14, 2022

Friday's market was the third day in a row that the equity market, as evidenced by the S&P 500, moved higher. This is occurring in the face of extreme negative readings from Institutional investor polls as well as numbers from the...

Understanding your style of investing is an important step – especially today. Are you a Growth investor or a Value investor? Or do you prefer a mix of the two?

The Dog Days of Summer Close

Ken South

Wednesday, September 7, 2022

I don’t know about you, but the long 3-day weekend surrounding Labor Day makes me stop and enjoy that last bit of Summer. That pause is important to help take a deep breath and appreciate the memories and laughs that were shared...

The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law on August 16, 2022, includes health-care and energy-related provisions, a new corporate alternative minimum tax, and an excise tax on certain corporate stock buybacks. Additional funding is...

President Biden's Student Loan Debt Forgiveness Fiasco (And Other News)

Ken South

Wednesday, August 31, 2022

In last week's note, I gave numerous charts and tables explaining why I believe that the market decline had run its course from January 4 through June 16th of this year. In actuality, there are many leading companies...

Suppose you have read or watched a story about converting an IRA to a Roth IRA after age 60. In that case, you may have seen this strategy portrayed negatively or only highlighting the benefits. This article will cover myths about...

Positive Q2 Earnings Turn Eyes Toward Jackson Hole

Ken South

Wednesday, August 24, 2022

In past reports, I discussed the personality of mid-term election years coupled with the consequences of the Fed raising interest rates. From January 4th to June 16th, the S&P 500 incurred a 26% decline. In my note last week, I discussed...

MedPAC cautions that Medicare Advantage may worsen Medicare's sustainabilityBaby boomers’ huge numbers and surprisingly shaky health threaten government old-age benefits. That’s why you might need to bolster your own...

The Inflation v. Recession Tug-O-War Gets Muddier

Ken South

Wednesday, August 17, 2022

After inflation readings came in higher than had been seen in 40 years, last week we got CPI and PPI numbers that were far more manageable, and as a result, the new "fear de jour" became that of a drastic recessionary slowdown as a result o

Being an educator requires expertise and that you stay current on developments in your field. However, that level of ongoing attention can make it difficult to find the time to stay on top of issues that affect your finances, or to put...

A 3% Interest Rate May Feel High When It Started At Zero

Ken South

Wednesday, August 10, 2022

In this week’s note, I’m going to go over two main points. First, I believe that the relationship between the employment numbers of last week combined with the Fed’s course of interest rates has a direct effect on the...

Are you covered by insurance if your dog bites a neighbor? How about if your tree falls on a neighbor's fence? And what if you're sued when someone slips and falls on your front walk? You can find the answers to these and other...

The Dog Days of Summer Are Upon Us

Ken South

Wednesday, August 3, 2022

The markets and the economy are based on simple principles of economics and forward progression of earnings to create proper (perceived) valuations for companies today and into the future. The massive amount of money that was thrown at...

Many parents are committed to sending their children to private elementary or secondary school. Yet paying private school tuition can present a compelling cash flow problem. The reason is that, unlike with college or graduate school,...

Is The Fed Getting Ready To Rip Off The Band-Aid?

Ken South

Wednesday, July 27, 2022

Today, the frictional buzz is now all about inflation and recession. It feels quite strange that the Fed would be raising interest rates as the economy is supposedly racing into the jaws of a recession. As I often like to say, “I...

When it comes to health and wellness, many people are stuck in the short term. There are so many fad diets, exercise crazes, and quick-fix supplements out there that it can be difficult to cut through the noise and create a sustainable...

Whispers On Wall St... But Which Do You Listen To?

Ken South

Wednesday, July 20, 2022

Last week started quite weak and looked like it was going to be another disaster of a week until it turned on a dime Thursday and was up strong on Friday. This week started out on the upside and then turned when Apple mentioned that it...

The cyclist can win with a few strategic moves and by avoiding crashes. To reach your financial goals, you don’t have to outperform every benchmark every year. For long-term investors, avoiding and mitigating losses can be a key...

The June Jobs Report Does Not Show The Big Picture

Ken South

Wednesday, July 13, 2022

The big news that came out since the last note I wrote was the employment number that was released last Friday. On the surface, it looked strong. As a result, rates rose (due to economic strength), the US Dollar rallied to another...

If the value of your stocks, bonds, or other capital investments has increased substantially, there are a few steps you can take to minimize taxation. These include timing the sale of your capital assets, using capital losses...

Price Stability Is The Federal Reserve's Mandate

Ken South

Wednesday, July 6, 2022

In the June Federal Reserve meeting (when it raised interest rates by 75 basis points, or 0.75%), it issued an updated economic forecast based on incoming economic data. It is currently looking for the economy (GDP) to grow by 1.5-1.9%...

Wildfires are incredibly destructive, fast-spreading, and tough to contain. Worst of all, a fire may come as a complete surprise to those impacted. Natural disasters can also displace tens of thousands of residents, as was the case in...

The Federal Reserve And The Bullwhip Economy

Ken South

Wednesday, June 29, 2022

Over the past few weeks, the economic indicators have been showing that the fear of inflation seems to be easing. As all financial news followers should know, the Fed’s primary mandate is to sustain an orderly economy. This means...

Money is the capital and like in cycling – it’s the losses that matter To reach your financial goals, you don’t have to outperform every benchmark every year. For long-term investors, avoiding and mitigating losses is...

What to Consider During a Market Correction

Ken South

Wednesday, June 22, 2022

It is clear that we are in a market correction. During corrections, the markets tend to exhibit similar characteristics that we assume will exhaust themselves, and usually, they do. At times, though, instead of the small, digestible moves..

No matter how careful you are in running your business, accidents happen. And no matter how big or small your business, you'll have to plan for these and other risks if you want your business to thrive. One way to do this is with...

Could Mortgage Rates Be The Canary In The Coal Mine?

Ken South

Tuesday, June 14, 2022

In the 1980s, "goods" inflation peaked when the Fed, under Volcker, broke the back of inflation. Today, as opposed to back then, we can see virtually everything in an instant to evaluate the actions of the Fed. Powell stated that his...

Vacation homes require a special type of insurance--one that protects your vacation home but doesn't overlap with your already existing homeowners insurance coverage. Here are some things to consider when insuring your vacation home....

No Hurricane... Yet

Ken South

Tuesday, June 7, 2022

Last Friday JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon made one of the most irresponsible public displays I've seen in some time. He talked about a "hurricane" hitting the US economy. The drama of this is clearly typical with social media being what...

Consider a safety course and make sure you adequately insure your vessel On bright and sunny summer days, the allure of the water can be irresistible. If you live near a lake, river, or ocean, boating trips may be the perfect getaway...

Rubber Band Snapback?

Ken South

Tuesday, May 31, 2022

To begin, I hope that everyone had a good Memorial Day weekend. I certainly did after the week we just experienced. After seven down weeks back-to-back, the markets finally had a positive one! Unfortunately, this is how Bear Market...

California’s CalSavers Retirement Savings Program (CalSavers), introduced in 2019, is designed to help as many as 7.5 million Californians access a workplace retirement program, providing a portable option that employees can keep and....

Is The Bear Market Getting Tired?

Ken South

Tuesday, May 24, 2022

Last Friday I put out a special report titled, "Market at a Crossroad." To my analysis and the various market measurements that I have been presenting the last few weeks, it was sort of looking very extended to the downside....

If you are newly married with no children, you may have a special opportunity to build your savings and investments. Financially, a married couple can be more than the sum of its parts. One spouse can work steadily, while the other...

Stocks at a Crossroads

Ken South

Thursday, May 19, 2022

In the spotlight today: economic expectations due to domestic retailer weakness, sentiment, and valuations — the big things you need to know: The S&P 500 is still trading as though it’s experiencing a growth scare, a...

Plan for the Week

Ken South

Tuesday, May 17, 2022

In this week’s letter, I believe that we have enough meat on the bone to address a few of the different issues that have been plaguing markets and set up a road map for an investor going forward. I want to first break down what...

Many couples blame their marriage problems on disagreements and an inability to see eye to eye. Marriage counseling is a great option for couples who need to learn how to better communicate, but it might not solve the problem that...

Perspective on Market Decline

Ken South

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

This week I really don't have a whole lot to share with you. I really don’t need to restate that we have a market that has a number of different issues raining on its parade. So, I am going to put some...

What counts is how your money is invested now in anticipation of rate hikes At their recent March meeting, the Federal Reserve moved its fed funds target rate from near zero to a range of 0.25% to 0.50%. It was the first rate hike...

Is the Fed "Hiking" Into Economic Slowdown?

Ken South

Tuesday, May 3, 2022

Last Thursday, when the Commerce Department announced that the 2022 first-quarter GDP dropped 1.4%, many market commentators voiced surprise. As many observers should know, after so many negative concerns this should have been far from...

If you're paying attention to the news, you've probably come across story after story on the health of Social Security. And depending on the actuarial assumptions used and the political slant, Social Security has been described as...

Few sporting events hold as much tradition as the Kentucky Derby, which began in 1875. You probably know of mint juleps, fancy hats, and maybe a few fan-favorite thoroughbreds running in the race, but the history of the derby spans...

We've Come (Back) a Long Way Since 2019

Ken South

Tuesday, April 26, 2022

Thus far, 2022 has been a year in which equities and bonds have had the proverbial "kitchen sink" hurled at them. Given all this, the US equity market is about where it should be; beat up but not dead. 

The inflation/interest rate cycle at a glance When prices rise, bondholders worry that the interest they're paid won't buy as much. In an effort to control inflation, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates to encourage investors...

Commodities – Opportunity, Diversifier, or Waste of Time?

Ken South

Thursday, April 21, 2022

After a decade of robust market gains, 2022 has begun much differently, with inflationary fears and conflict in Ukraine sapping the strength from animal spirits and sending US markets to their first negative quarter since COVID began...

Russia, Ukraine, and Commodities

Ken South

Wednesday, April 20, 2022

To say that this has been a difficult and different start to a year is a gross understatement. At the end of last week, we started getting the parade of earnings for the first quarter of 2022—beginning with the large money...

Even though the Federal Reserve has been keeping its benchmark federal funds rate at historic lows recently, it's important to remember that rising rates can affect you as a consumer and investor. What is the federal funds rate? The...

Only Time Will Tell

Ken South

Tuesday, April 12, 2022

This week’s commentary is going to be short and sweet – well, ‘sweet’ is still up for debate. Last week, I went into extensive detail on what I am noticing and paying attention to. We are in quite a precarious...

Many couples may find themselves confronted with a dilemma as retirement nears. If you plan to receive your pension payout on a monthly basis (rather than in a lump sum), you must decide whether you want to receive a higher payment...

Our Stock Market Final Four

Ken South

Tuesday, April 5, 2022

It's clear that the buzz of the last few weeks has been college basketball's Sweet Sixteen tournament, and Monday of this week was the last game of the season's Final Four. Needless to say, it was very exciting with...

As you approach retirement, many important decisions await you. If you have a qualified employer-sponsored retirement plan, whether it is a traditional pension or defined contribution plan, such as a 401(k), you will have to decide how...

Inflation Or Economic Growth: Which One Wins?

Ken South

Wednesday, March 30, 2022

Domestic growth continues to be strong. Since our economy is very diverse, growth can be categorized in many ways. Some are growing off the charts (commodities), some are growing at normal rates (consumer staples and consumer...

According to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), tax scams tend to increase during tax season and/or times of crisis.1 Now that tax season is in full swing, the IRS is reminding taxpayers to use caution and avoid becoming the victim of...

A Bad Start To A Year Isn't A Death Sentence

Ken South

Tuesday, March 22, 2022

In today's newsletter, I am going to cover what I believe to be the important points to cover that should be focused on instead of focusing on the continued death and destruction being espoused by the media. As far as I see it, these...

Making sure your investments help you work towards your true life goals Too often during uncertain times, we inadvertently compare ourselves to the people around us – and that may lead us to make financial mistakes. In his book...

The Market Seems to be Losing Velocity on the Downside

Ken South

Tuesday, March 15, 2022

Vladimir Putin's diabolical invasion of Ukraine has succeeded in turning Russia into a rogue state, and with his nuclear threats, he is playing an insanely dangerous game. The nations of Europe have placed themselves in a...

No matter what markets are doing, be assured that this time is not different Bear markets happen. Bull markets happen. Just stick to your financial plan, and stay calm and disciplined. When the market sours or slumps, don’t...

Did Warren Buffet Help Describe a Bottoming Process?

Ken South

Wednesday, March 9, 2022

There is so much going on right now that I’m not even sure where to begin. By now, anyone plugged into the news and financial markets should have a rough idea of what has been happening: The war in Ukraine...

News Aside, Can We Please Get to the Root Of the Problem?

Ken South

Tuesday, March 8, 2022

As humans, we are inherently emotional animals. As such, right, wrong, or indifferent, we want an answer to a problem. Why did it happen? How bad will it get? How do we fix it? This year has not been pretty for the broad markets....

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has drawn condemnation and punitive sanctions from the United States, Europe, and their allies. The humanitarian cost of war cannot be measured, and the long-term economic effects could take months or...

Should We Fear The Ides of March?

Ken South

Tuesday, March 1, 2022

It has been some time since we have had the “darlings” of Wall Street be the “heels” of the market for such an extended period of time. It could have been due to their unabated runs higher or maybe their...

In the U.S., more people are choosing to remain single and not be partnered. Census data shows that in 2019 the share of American adults who were neither married nor living with a partner had risen to 38 percent according to an October...

Fear Worked Better Than Greed Last Week

Ken South

Thursday, February 24, 2022

As the heat held strong on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I have to wonder if Putin and China’s Xi bought index puts against the US stock market to benefit from the decline experienced last week? Most textbooks omit the chapter...

What if Democrats Lose Seats?

Ken South

Tuesday, February 22, 2022

One of the most popular questions we’ve received lately is what could happen in the upcoming midterm election? Although we are a long way away from Election Day, it is important to note that a new president has historically...

As of 2018, about 58 million Americans had a 401(k), while around one-third of households owned an individual retirement account (IRA).1, 2 Yet for as commonplace as these retirement accounts can be, the nuances of contributions...

Is It Time to Buy Buy or Bye Bye?

Ken South

Tuesday, February 15, 2022

By any number of measures, the markets have taken quite a hit. For example, as of January 25th, 2022, the average stock in the Russell 2000 Index has experienced a drawdown of almost 40%, and in the NASDAQ Composite, the average stock...

The average college student graduates with around $30,000 in student loan debt. While this isn't an insurmountable amount of debt for a degree that may boost your earning potential, it also makes it important to maintain responsible...

It's Okay, I'm a Retired Lifeguard

Ken South

Tuesday, February 8, 2022

Before I dive into this week’s focus, I want to take a moment and talk about some major policy items that people should be aware of: First, I want you to remember that the markets (stock, bond, currency, and commodity markets)...

Most of us find the notion of creating (and sticking to) a budget about as appealing as spring cleaning chores. And, with the stress that usually accompanies tax filing hopefully behind you, you may not be inclined just now to tackle a...

Does an 8 Year Low in Retail Sentiment Lead to Violent Upside?

Ken South

Tuesday, February 1, 2022

If I’m being honest – last week was brutal. I know I wasn’t the only one who was looking for a bag of frozen peas to help numb the pain of losing the octagon match against the Market. But hopefully, no one’s...

Things to think about as you review your long-term retirement strategy Tempted to stash your money in a bank certificate of deposit (CD)? Or maybe under your mattress? Think either one of them will keep pace with inflation? Think again...

Is it Hot in Here, or Is It Just Me?

Ken South

Thursday, January 27, 2022

Normally when you think of January you think cold temperatures or winter. But as of late, the markets have been heating us up and not in a good way. Maybe we can compare it to when you’re wearing a thick turtleneck that you...

Sometimes The Clash Gets It Right

Ken South

Tuesday, January 25, 2022

"You got to let me know. Should I stay or should I go? If you say that you are mine. I'll be here 'till the end of time. So you got to let me know. Should I stay or should I go?” —The Clash, June 10, 1982

Market corrections happen about once every 19 months – and we’re at 19 After the stock market’s fantastic growth in 2021, many believe a pullback (or even a correction) may be a healthy thing. Such a drop is not...

Don't Fear Uncertainty, Embrace It

Ken South

Thursday, January 20, 2022

This past week certainly wasn't the destroyer that the first week of the year was, but after a promising bounce following the Monday morning punch to new short-term lows on the major indexes, the sellers did come back to try and finish...

On December 15, 2021, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System made a significant shift in monetary policy in response to rising inflation. The Committee accelerated the reduction of its bond-buying...

Have We Hit Some Market Headwinds?

Ken South

Wednesday, January 12, 2022

Many analysts were disappointed by last Friday's job report for December, but we think the headline masks an overall report that shows continued improvement in the labor market and a possible surge in small-business start-ups. On the...

A traditional IRA offers a great way to shield income from taxation while boosting your retirement accounts. Meanwhile, a Roth IRA can let you pay tomorrow's taxes today. But how can workers who are eligible to contribute to either...

It Makes Complete Sense Now: Bad is Good and Good is Bad

Ken South

Wednesday, January 5, 2022

2021 was the year of a continued virus, rising inflation, and the promise of higher interest rates from the Fed. Not a trifecta of great things, yet the market had its best year out of the last three really good years! So that means...

We all have things we’d like to see happen in the New Year. Whether it’s an improvement to your health and well-being, a new career you’d like to pursue, or a bad habit you need to break, resolutions are sometimes...

Santa Claus Is Staying In Town

Ken South

Tuesday, December 28, 2021

Now that 2021 is about done, the next logical question is where will the S&P 500 be at the end of 2022. Regarding this logical yet elusive question, it is clear that one could guess, but given how strange the environment has been for...

Before you lock in that 15%, make sure you consider all the variables Are you thinking about bailing out of stocks before year-end while the capital gains rate is low? Before you hit the sell button, think it over carefully. For now,...

It Feels Like The Market Is Looking In A Mirror

Ken South

Tuesday, December 21, 2021

To me, this current market is starting to feel a lot like it did when COVID first hit in 2020, yet this time we know what happened. In 2020, there were very severe cases that, to many, became lethal. There was no vaccine as of yet, and...

For some, it’s easy to put personal finances on the back burner during the last few months of the year. However, before the year comes to an end, it’s essential to review your finances. By doing so now, you can make the...

Is Jerome Powell Going to Be Naughty or Nice?

Ken South

Tuesday, December 14, 2021

If there haven't been enough interruptions already, this week should be the last big week of the year, with five major central banks scheduled to meet and nine more from emerging market countries. And yesterday's PPI was not the most...

Not knowing what Congress will do should not stop you from planning One variable that is hard to plan for in retirement is taxes. There are steps you can take, though, despite the uncertain tax landscape. We don’t even know what...

Santa’s North Pole Takeoff was a Little Rocky This Year

Ken South

Wednesday, December 8, 2021

At the close on Friday, the NASDAQ Composite Index was down 6.1% and the S&P 500 was down 3.5%, from their recent all-time record highs.  The 10-year US Treasury yield had cratered from 1.71% to 1.34%, a decline in the 10-year...

Saving money can be hard. It often feels like your paycheck goes in your bank account and a minute later it’s gone. Between bills and unexpected life moments, it always seems you’re left saying “I’m broke...

Institutional Black Friday / Cyber Monday Sales Extravaganza

Ken South

Wednesday, December 1, 2021

I know it may sound strange, but I really think that the markets needed a day like Friday. Was it painful? Was it a shock? Was it based on a new variant? I think it was something totally different altogether. I believe we had a...

After his grandfather died more than a decade ago, Lamarr Couser and his family were caught by surprise when the funeral director asked whether the World War II veteran was covered by a life insurance policy from the Department of...

Not Everyone Should Be a Turkey

Ken South

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Today’s report will be a little different than usual. There once again isn’t much new to say about the short-term setup in the market, so while I will discuss that a little, the main emphasis will be on the bigger picture...

Remember, early planning puts time on your side Whether retirement is around the corner or decades away, there are more options than ever to help you plan for it. Let’s look at Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) and 401(k)...

Real Earnings Show Wage Gains Consumed By Inflation

Ken South

Wednesday, November 17, 2021

"Critical Thinking is the desire to seek patience, to doubt fondness, to meditate slowness, to assert readiness, to consider carefulness, to dispose and set in order and hatred of every kind of imposter" — Francis Bacon, 1605...

Contrary to what many people think, trusts are not reserved only for the wealthy. The truth is, people from all walks of life may benefit from a trust. What Is a Trust? Generally speaking, a trust is a legal entity that allows someone...

Don't Suffer from a Pandemic Hangover of Pessimism

Ken South

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

Exiting last week, roughly 90% of the S&P 500 constituents have reported their quarterly results, with 82% of them beating on EPS and 68% beating on revenue, which compares to an average of 79% beating on EPS and 65% beating on revenue...

Whether you're a current business owner or a budding entrepreneur burning with the next great idea, one of the most important steps you can take on your road to success is creating a business plan. Why? A well-thought-out and...

Here Come the Best Days of the Year

Ken South

Wednesday, November 3, 2021

Brother wind, rain, a broken supply chain, rising inflation, slowing GDP, flattening bond yield curve, Cushing oil supply hitting critical point, slowing incomes (due to ending of Government subsidies), flagging sentiment, nor...

Sustainable investing is on the rise, accounting for about $1 in every $3 in actively managed assets.1 And with more investors interested in companies with responsible corporate governance, climate change commitments and long-term...

The End Draws Near for an Era of Low Inflation

Ken South

Wednesday, October 27, 2021

When I am asked what I worry about in the financial markets, the answer usually is "nothing and everything,” because everyone else in the market seems to spend an inordinate amount of time worrying, and so all of the relevant...

Few U.S. high schools have comprehensive personal finance programs, which means that some teens enter adulthood without a deep base of knowledge on topics like investing, budgeting, and consumer debt. Even those who feel they're fairly...

Let's Talk About Inflation

Ken South

Wednesday, October 20, 2021

In the face of the greatest stimulus in the history of mankind, it is a small wonder that it is leading to the US adding as much debt in the last 18 months as was in place up until 2006 for the whole history of this country. There can...

The past two years presented many small-business owners with unprecedented challenges. This year’s tax planning preparations include necessary measures for small-business owners to satisfy existing, new and modified tax laws that...

Is October 15, 2021, the New April 15, 2021?

Ken South

Wednesday, October 13, 2021

This week is set to begin earnings season for the third quarter of this year. It should be kicked off with earnings reports from large money center banks. If one were to look at the markets from a week ago, things were starting to look...

But retirees need to remember that inflation is a symptom, not a cause Does increasing inflation boost economic growth? And do dropping prices hurt growth prospects? No and no. But to hear the Federal Reserve tell it when Janet Yellen...

The Waiting Game

Ken South

Tuesday, October 5, 2021

Investors have become preoccupied with Federal Reserve monetary policy with regard to the anticipated tapering of the Quantitative Easing bond-buying program, along with continuing concerns about the virus and the variant. With the...

Knowing the different types of investment risk can help you cope with market volatility. When was the last time you checked your retirement plan balance? If your balance was less than it was the last time you checked, you probably felt...

Are Storm Clouds Brewing Or Is It A Storm In A Teacup?

Ken South

Wednesday, September 29, 2021

It's important to understand where the market has come from over the past couple of weeks. As I have noted in recent missives, the rally that we're seeing following Monday of last week's gap-down panic break on the "supposed"...

Your retirement portfolio might be up, but inflation is crushing your returns On August 11th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index increased 5.4% over the past 12 months. Shockingly, media outlets...

So Who Is Really Driving This Bus?

Ken South

Wednesday, September 22, 2021

I've spoken about the major economic and international elements that seem to be shaping the direction of our US equity markets, but this week seems to be a little more tenuous. In my September 8th missive, I started out by talking...

California recently joined several other states by enacting a legal workaround for the $10,000 limitation on state and local tax (SALT) deductions.1 This $10,000 limit was part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and had a major...

Is a 2-3% Correction Considered a Crash?

Ken South

Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Valuation is a perfect example of something that investors are told matters a great deal, but I have not seen any real evidence to support that in practice. Those who disagree with me will try to tell me otherwise, but you have to...

In 2021, 44.7 million Americans are facing the burden of student loan debt. They owe more than $1.53 trillion in student loans. These alarming statistics prove the importance of saving for higher education. In the past, many parents...

Final 3rd of a Very Interesting Year, What Does a Race to the Finish Look Like?

Ken South

Wednesday, September 8, 2021

For the last two weeks, every time it looked like the stock market might correct a bit deeper it (once again) just came right back. As it stands, the only real hook to hang a hat on for the widely expected September swoon is the...

The rules and consequences of IRA beneficiary arrangements are complex The rules pertaining to Individual Retirement Account (IRA) beneficiaries can be complicated. Here is a quick look at the limitations the Internal Revenue Service...

Powell Says Little New and Stocks Like What They Don't Hear

Ken South

Tuesday, August 31, 2021

I plan on talking a bit about where the markets are as they seem to continue to go to all-time highs: the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, New York Stock Exchange, and the NASDAQ Growth Index. Yet the negativity and...

Is the Market Strong or Simply Pushing on a String?

Ken South

Friday, August 27, 2021

"Secular bull markets tend to last 15-20 years and sometimes longer. So, a case can be made that we are approximately 12 years into this bull market and there is no reason not to expect this one to extend for years to come. In fact,...

Summer Doldrums Post Covid, Please Tell Me It Isn't So

Ken South

Thursday, August 19, 2021

The Producer Price Index surges to all-time highs, and the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average does as well, hmmmm, that's a little strange. Inflation at the producer level is rising at never-before-seen levels and the indexes...