Debt Ceiling Debate Carries On As Interest Rates Continue to Rise
May 24, 2023 --
If you have been to a high school or college commencement lately, then you know the drill: at some point, at least one speaker will urge the graduates to be instrumental in bettering society. They are suggesting they'd like to see these students make the world a better place through some sort of conservative organization and work effort. What seems to be lacking is...
All Eyes on The Debt Ceiling and The Fed's Next Move
May 17, 2023 --
In this week’s note, I am going to pretty much take you from soup to nuts on what has gone on, what is going on, and where it “appears” we could / should be going. Since this is clearly an imperfect science, I ask you to indulge me with your patience and allow me to give you what I glean to be most important...
Banks Are Now Competing With The Fed
May 10, 2023 --
The Fed's job was never going to be easy. Taming inflation is not something it's particularly good at. It tends to raise rates too far, throw the economy into a tailspin, hit the gas again, and surely needs to squash inflation...
Markets Tend To Bottom Before Fundamentals
May 3, 2023 --
The Fed's job was never going to be easy. Taming inflation is not something it's particularly good at. It tends to raise rates too far, throw the economy into a tailspin, hit the gas again, and surely needs to squash inflation...
Tighter Credit Adds Further Pressure On Small Businesses
April 26, 2023 --
The economy seems to be humming along OK. Not too hot and not too cold. The raising of rates by the Fed has been very abrupt and due to the pain it has created within the financial system it is what all remember. But, so was the rate at which money was dumped on the US (and other global economies as well for that matter) financial system at stressful points since the Great Financial Crisis yet this was a help so it is not as...
Tighter Credit Adds Further Pressure On Small Businesses
April 26, 2023 --
The economy seems to be humming along OK. Not too hot and not too cold. The raising of rates by the Fed has been very abrupt and due to the pain it has created within the financial system it is what all remember. But, so was the rate at which money was dumped on the US (and other global economies as well for that matter) financial system at stressful points since the Great Financial Crisis yet this was a help so it is not as...
A Bullish Market Despite Persistent Fear Of A Bear
April 19, 2023 --
Despite the mild pullback on Thursday of last week, last week once again managed to put in a positive return. Four of the past five weeks have been up weeks even though the institutional investors have been more negative and have a higher short position than has been seen in some time. The number of reasons why this market should continue to be stronger, based on statistics, keeps on stacking up...
Can the Fed Adjust its Inflation Target and Adopt a New Normal?
April 12, 2023 --
Despite the mild pullback on Thursday of last week, last week once again managed to put in a positive return. Four of the past five weeks have been up weeks even though the institutional investors have been more negative and have a higher short position than has been seen in some time. The number of reasons why this market should continue to be stronger, based on statistics, keeps on stacking up...
S&P Makes Headway as Data Show April Likely Favorable
April 05, 2023 --
At the start of 2023, the street consensus was bearish on equities; both institutional investors and the man/woman on the street were not excited about the year to come. I began 2023 by giving historical statistics of what changes were happening in the markets and then of late (since the last interim top on February 2) the negatives that the negative nabobs were espousing....
In The Banking Crisis Of 2023, There's Plenty Of Blame To Be Shared
March 29, 2023 --
In only two weeks, the stresses to the markets have gone from inflation and the possibility of recession due to higher interest rates to an utter banking crisis. In my last two letters, I addressed the banking issues and attempted to explain what was "different this time." These were different than my normal missives due to the clear importance of the sovereignty of banks that all depend on.
"Big Daddy" Federal Reserve Comes To The Rescue... Again
March 22, 2023 --
Given the gravity of the situation in our global banking system, I am going to expound a little bit more on Friday’s note. To say that the last few weeks have been action-packed in finance land would be a gross understatement...
A Banking Kerfuffle And The Fight To Thwart Inflation
March 17, 2023 --
As interest rates have risen over the past couple of years, bond prices have dropped since all those bonds yielding, say, 1% when issued back when rates were lower are no longer attractive compared to the higher-yielding bonds of today.
Up Early After Down Year Suggests 'Buy-The-Dip' March, April
March 08, 2023 --
With February in the rear-view mirror and the rest of the statistics still firmly in place, we can make some judgments about what comes next. The next eight weeks is a time for “buying the dip,” as far as historical data is concerned. This statement does not account for the Fed’s current tilt and the still overabundance of capital sloshing around.
Stuck Between A Bear And A Bull
March 01, 2023 --
We are at the end of the second month of the new year. A year that has started far differently than 2022. As of last Friday (2/24), 94% of the S&P 500's companies had reported their Q4 2022 earnings. Here’s what we know...
Late-February Lull Looms As Inflation, Wage Pressure Persist
February 22, 2023 --
The last two weeks have not been a continuation of the New Year celebration that has been experienced in the first six weeks of 2023. There has been some “hotter” inflationary economic data lately, and it is too easy and tempting for the inflation-istas to jump on this and think inflation is surging ahead...
Too Early To Call A Bull, But Markets Have Played Ball In 2023
February 15, 2023 --
Investors should be feeling pretty good at this point. In California, the rain storms seem to have passed (for now at least), Super Bowl LVII was filled with drama and decided by a last-second field goal, and bonds, US Stocks, and Foreign Stocks seem to be rebounding from the lows of the last quarter (4Q2022)....
January Jobs Report Catches Economists In Groupthink Trap
February 08, 2023 --
If you pay any attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments you’ll know that his primary measurement of progress against inflation is by looking at the domestic labor market and the cost thereof. Going into the recent jobs report...
Weaker Inflation, USD Data Lend Support For Rate Hike Easing
February 01, 2023 --
I have been able to understand how negative the equity markets of the world can be by listening to CNBC in the mornings, at about 5:15 west coast time. When the commentators are interviewing random politicians or business owners about mundane subjects it is clear that there is not a tremendous amount of substance, to pay attention to. We are in such a time...
Equity Markets Rise As Falling Earnings Still Eye Recession
January 25, 2023 --
This year has started quite well. In the first week and a half, the equity market was going up in an organized and methodical fashion. Then came last week when the indexes had poked their noses above their respective 200-day moving average lines (after spending a year below this level) only to be broadsided by a decline last week that felt similar to the false starts we experienced in February, June, and October of last year...
Two Weeks In And 2023 Already Looks Different Than 2022
January 18, 2023 --
With the first two weeks of trading for 2023 in the books, and deep scares from 2022 deeply engrained in memory, we are welcoming how this year is starting. Opportunities seem to be presenting themselves in both the fixed-income and equity markets, yet vivid memories of the short-term rallying...
The Fed Still Appears To Hold All Of The Cards
January 11, 2023 --
As we come to the end of 2022, the US equity market (as measured by the S&P 500) appears locked in a range of 3800-4100. The question we’re asking now is what is it that will cause a move out of this range in 2023? At present, the major issues concerning us are as follows:
Incoming Labor Data Sets The Tone For The Year 2023
January 04, 2023 --
The end of a calendar year should have little influence on the directional move of markets, yet tax considerations and general emotional motivations often exaggerate moves at the turn of the year. Several key economic events over the next few weeks will set the tone for incoming data and interest rate policy in 2023. Below are a few that I am paying attention to...
Good Riddance 2022, Welcome 2023
December 28, 2022 --
The stock markets of the world are struggling into the close of 2022, capping what has proven to be a horrible year for equities. In our view, US core inflation has apexed (mid-2022) and now running at closer to 2%. But due to lags in how price-level series works (inflation is a price level), inflation will not be officially "2%" (year over year) until Sept 2023. Will markets and Fed wait until...
Bringing 2022 Home: Trends To Watch In The New Year
December 21, 2022 --
As we come to the end of 2022, the US equity market (as measured by the S&P 500) appears locked in a range of 3800-4100. The question we’re asking now is what is it that will cause a move out of this range in 2023? At present, the major issues concerning us are as follows:
Unresolved Policy Issues Leave Markets With More Questions
December 14, 2022 --
Predicting market values in 2023 is tougher than normal. To give a brief recap; COVID declines led to a substantial bounce in the markets following the March 2020 low, this was then followed by an additionally strong market in 2021, this was then capped by a Fed rate hike cycle induced decline for the entirety of 2022. Now we sit with still unfinished international and domestic policy issues that are...
When Will This Correction End?
December 07, 2022
Investors are incredibly inventive in their thoughts and solutions, which is why all crisis situations get dealt with. When all seems lost, the market finds a low and starts higher once again. The pain point needs to become enough of an issue that...
Bear Market Rallies Are Great Exercises in Prudence
November 30, 2022 --
This week is very interesting as it follows a Holiday week with extremely low volume yet a lot of information. The data from last week seems to be setting the stage for year-end. To begin with, I wanted to go over what we got last week...
The New Economy In The Wake Of The Pandemic
November 23, 2022 --
With a surprising level of consistency over the past 100 years or so, stocks have followed a broad pattern that coincides with presidential terms. The months leading up to midterm elections have generally been the worst in what is known as the four-year presidential election...
Is A Market Bottom Confirmed By Global Interest Rate Moves?
November 16, 2022 --
We knew that last week would be quite a week with the Election on Wednesday and CPI released on Thursday. Not to be outdone, we also had the crypto disaster of FTX going on at the same time. At the end of the week, we had a massive...
Yes! The Election Is Finally Over...Now What?
November 09, 2022 --
If we're right about the election outcomes, or even close, many stock market investors might take it as a reason to be bullish. The result would be "gridlock," which means no major federal legislation could be enacted unless it got significant bipartisan support going forward...
Mid-Term Makeover: Will Markets Rally Post-Election?
November 02, 2022 --
With a surprising level of consistency over the past 100 years or so, stocks have followed a broad pattern that coincides with presidential terms. The months leading up to midterm elections have generally been the worst in what is known as the four-year presidential election...
Will The Markets Be High On Tricks Or Treats This Halloween?
October 26, 2022 --
At present, it isn't entirely clear whether we are, or are not, in a recession. The first two quarters of this year had negative GDP growth, which usually marks a recession. Now we have politicians debating the very definition of recession...
Sidelined Capital Keeps Its Eyes on Bottom Indicators
October 19, 2022 --
Before Monday and Tuesday of this week, we have had six times where the markets tried to rally only to reverse and decline once again. Thursday of last week appeared to be a bit different in that it was what is called a "positive...
An Interest Rate Top Could Telegraph A Market Bottom
October 12, 2022 --
Looking back to the start of October, Monday, and Tuesday of last week were clearly different from what we experienced in the month of September. The 4% level on the 10-Year US Treasury yield is sort of looking like a line in the sand. In the market decline of...
This Is What A Sale On Wall Street Feels Like
October 05, 2022 --
"Unpredictable price movements are part of long-term investing, which is distinct from the concept of risk.” I meant that when I wrote it in September, and the actions of late cannot be any clearer evidence of this. Since the market has been in its correction, I have mentioned time and again that this is typical...
Desperate Times Call For Desperate Measures...Is That The Case Now?
September 28, 2022 --
To say that 2022 has been a tough year would be a gross understatement. From remnants of COVID mandates to delayed air travel to spiking interest rates, this has been a year of numerous and never-before-seen combinations...
Fed Up: Market Lows
September 21, 2022 --
At present we are clearly in a battle. On one hand, we have the Federal Reserve trying to rein in inflation by raising interest rates and on the other side, we have the economy as measured by the GDP and the stock market. The Fed keeps raising rates, and the GDP has turned negative as has the stock market...
Market Showing Impressive Strength; Now Needs to Hang On
September 14, 2022 --
Friday's market was the third day in a row that the equity market, as evidenced by the S&P 500, moved higher. This is occurring in the face of extreme negative readings from Institutional investor polls as well as numbers from the weekly AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) polls. The stock market seems to be underscoring that it may be “OK” (for now) and it could be...
The Dog Days of Summer Close
September 7, 2022 --
I don’t know about you, but the long 3-day weekend surrounding Labor Day makes me stop and enjoy that last bit of Summer. That pause is important to help take a deep breath and appreciate the memories and laughs that were shared while enjoying the warmer days that made everything just feel better...
President Biden's Student Loan Debt Forgiveness Fiasco
August 31, 2022 -- In last week's note, I gave numerous charts and tables explaining why I believe that the market decline had run its course from January 4 through June 16th of this year. In actuality, there are many leading companies that actually began to show some level of...
Positive Q2 Earnings Turn Eyes Toward Jackson Hole
August 24, 2022 -- In past reports, I discussed the personality of mid-term election years coupled with the consequences of the Fed raising interest rates. From January 4th to June 16th, the S&P 500 incurred a 26% decline. In my note last week, I discussed...
The Inflation v. Recession Tug-O-War Gets Muddier
August 17, 2022 -- After inflation readings came in higher than had been seen in 40 years, last week we got CPI and PPI numbers that were far more manageable, and as a result, the new "fear de jour" became that of a drastic recessionary slowdown as a result...
A 3% Interest Rate May Feel High When It Started At Zero...
August 10, 2022 -- In this week’s note, I’m going to go over two main points. First, I believe that the relationship between the employment numbers of last week combined with the Fed’s course of interest rates has a direct effect on the...
The Dog Days Of Summer Are Upon Us
August 3, 2022 -- The massive amount of money that was thrown at the US economy in 2020 & 2021 fueled the expansion of markets in virtually all asset classes. Crypto continued its ascent, real estate continued rising to new levels (never before seen might I add),..
Is The Fed Getting Ready To Rip Off The Band-Aid?
July 27, 2022 -- Today, the frictional buzz is now all about inflation and recession. It feels quite strange that the Fed would be raising interest rates as the economy is supposedly racing into the jaws of a recession. As I often like to say...
The Dog Days Of Summer Are Upon Us
August 3, 2022 -- The massive amount of money that was thrown at the US economy in 2020 & 2021 fueled the expansion of markets in virtually all asset classes. Crypto continued its ascent, real estate continued rising to new levels (never before seen might I add),..
Is The Fed Getting Ready To Rip Off The Band-Aid?
July 27, 2022 -- Today, the frictional buzz is now all about inflation and recession. It feels quite strange that the Fed would be raising interest rates as the economy is supposedly racing into the jaws of a recession. As I often like to say...
Whispers On Wall St... But Which Do You Listen To?
July 20, 2022 -- Last week looked like it was going to be another disaster of a week until it turned on a dime Thursday and was up strong on Friday. This week started out on the upside and then turned when Apple mentioned that it was going to reduce employee hiring....
The June Jobs Report Does Not Show The Big Picture
July 13, 2022 -- The big news that came out since the last note I wrote was the employment number that was released last Friday. On the surface, it looked strong. As a result, rates rose (due to economic strength), the US Dollar rallied to another...
Price Stability Is The Federal Reserve's Mandate
July 6, 2022 -- In the June Federal Reserve meeting (when it raised interest rates by 75 basis points, or 0.75%), it issued an updated economic forecast based on incoming economic data. It is currently looking for the economy (GDP) to grow by 1.5-1.9%...
The Federal Reserve And The Bullwhip Economy
June 29, 2022 -- Over the past few weeks, the economic indicators have been showing that the fear of inflation seems to be easing. As all financial news followers should know, the Fed’s primary mandate is to sustain an orderly economy. This means that they want to keep...
What To Consider During A Market Correction
June 22, 2022 -- It is clear that we are in a market correction. During corrections, the markets tend to exhibit similar characteristics that we assume will exhaust themselves, and usually, they do. At times, though, instead of the small, digestible moves, the markets experience a "correction..."
Could Mortgage Rates Be The Canary In The Coal Mine?
June 15, 2022 -- As we see it, inflation is the manifestation of what is happening after the dust settles from the massive influx of capital from the Federal Government during the COVID economic shutdown. The weaning of the economy off of this sugar high is difficult for...
No Hurricane...Yet
June 7, 2022 -- Last Friday, JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon made one of the most irresponsible public displays I've seen in some time. He talked about a "hurricane" hitting the US economy. The drama of this is clearly typical with social media being what it is today, but the equity markets of the world are discounting...
Rubber Band Snap Back?
May 31, 2022 -- After seven down weeks back-to-back, the markets finally had a positive one! Unfortunately, this is how Bear Market rallies usually work. They tend to be swift and sharp, a manner which catches most investors flat-footed and then scared to get back to looking for upside....
Is The Bear Market Getting Tired?
May 25, 2022 -- Last Friday I put out a special report titled, "Market at a Crossroad." To my analysis and the various market measurements that I have been presenting the last few weeks, it was sort of looking very extended to the downside. This is why I brought up the point that it was at a crossroads...
Stocks at a Crossroads
May 20, 2022 -- In the spotlight today: economic expectations due to domestic retailer weakness, sentiment, and valuations — here are the big things you need to know...
Plan for the Week
May 18, 2022 -- In this week’s letter, I believe that we have enough meat on the bone to address a few of the different issues that have been plaguing markets and set up a road map for an investor going forward....
Perspective on Market Decline
May 11, 2022 -- This week I really don't have a whole lot to share with you. I really don’t need to restate that we have a market that has a number of different issues raining on its parade. So, I am going to put some things into perspective as this is really what we should be doing now more than ever, but daily as well...
Is the Fed "Hiking" into an Economic Slowdown?
May 4, 2022 -- Last Thursday, when the Commerce Department announced that the 2022 first-quarter GDP dropped 1.4%, many market commentators voiced surprise. As many observers should know, after so many negative concerns this should have been far from...
We've Come (Back) a Long Way Since 2019
April 27, 2022 -- There's nothing like a brace of uncertainty to cause a surge of worry. Thus far, 2022 has been a year in which equities and bonds have had the proverbial "kitchen sink" hurled at them. Given all this, the US equity market is about where it should be; beat up but not dead...
Commodities - Opportunity, Diversifier, or Waste of Time?
April 22, 2022 -- After a decade of robust market gains, 2022 has begun much differently, with inflationary fears and conflict in Ukraine sapping the strength from animal spirits and sending US markets to their first negative quarter since COVID began in early 2020...
Russia, Ukraine and Commodities
April 20, 2022 -- At the end of last week, we started getting the parade of earnings for the first quarter of 2022—beginning with the large money center banks, regional banks, and investment banks. It appears that almost across the board the numbers are coming in better than expected. Even still, the financial sector and the financial technology companies are still in a significant decline...
Only Time Will Tell
April 13, 2022 -- Last week, I went into extensive detail on what I am noticing and paying attention to. We are in quite a precarious situation here stateside, but there is a far more precarious situation in developed Europe and parts of Asia and Africa. I believe that they are on the cusp of some very painful times when it comes to their economies trying to recover, yet they are faced with skyrocketing...
Stock Market Final Four
April 6, 2022 -- It's clear that the buzz of the last few weeks has been college basketball's Sweet Sixteen tournament, and Monday of this week was the last game of the season's Final Four. Needless to say, it was very exciting with Kansas coming from the largest first-half deficit in tournament final history to win! Let’s hope the markets do the same after a dreadful first quarter....
Inflation or Economic Growth: Which One Wins?
March 30, 2022 -- Domestic growth continues to be strong. Since our economy is very diverse, growth can be categorized in many ways. Some are growing off the charts (commodities), some are growing at normal rates...
A Bad Start To A Year Isn't A Death Sentence
March 22, 2022 -- In today's newsletter, I am going to cover what I believe to be the important points to cover that should be focused on instead of focusing on the continued death and destruction being espoused by the media. As far as I see it, these...
The Market Seems To Be Losing Velocity On The Downside
March 15, 2022 -- Vladimir Putin's diabolical invasion of Ukraine has succeeded in turning Russia into a rogue state, and with his nuclear threats, he is playing an insanely dangerous game. The nations of Europe have placed themselves in a...
Did Warren Buffet Help Describe A Bottoming Process?
March 9, 2022 --There is so much going on right now that I’m not even sure where to begin. By now, anyone plugged into the news and financial markets should have a rough idea of what has been happening: The war in Ukraine...
News Aside, Can We Please Get to the Root Of the Problem?
March 8, 2022 -- As humans, we are inherently emotional animals. As such, right, wrong, or indifferent, we want an answer to a problem. Why did it happen? How bad will it get? How do we fix it? This year has not been pretty for the broad markets...
Should We Fear The Ides of March?
March 1, 2022 -- It has been some time since we have had the “darlings” of Wall Street be the “heels” of the market for such an extended period of time. It could have been due to their unabated runs higher or maybe their...
Fear Worked Better Than Greed last Week
February 24, 2022 -- As the heat held strong on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I have to wonder if Putin and China’s Xi bought index puts against the US stock market to benefit from the decline experienced last week? Most textbooks omit the chapter...
What If Democrats Lose Seats
February 22, 2022 -- One of the most popular questions we’ve received lately is what could happen in the upcoming midterm election? Although we are a long way away from Election Day, it is important to note that a new president has historically...
Is It Time To Buy Buy Or Bye Bye?
February 15, 2022 -- By any number of measures, the markets have taken quite a hit. For example, as of January 25th, 2022, the average stock in the Russell 2000 Index has experienced a drawdown of almost 40%, and in the NASDAQ Composite, the average stock...
It's Okay I'm A Retired Lifeguard
February 8, 2022 -- Before I dive into this week’s focus, I want to take a moment and talk about some major policy items that people should be aware of: First, I want you to remember that the markets (stock, bond, currency, and commodity markets)...
Does An 8 Year Low In Retail Sentiment Lead To Violent Upside?
February 1, 2022 -- If I’m being honest – last week was brutal. I know I wasn’t the only one who was looking for a bag of frozen peas to help numb the pain of losing the octagon match against the Market. But hopefully, no one’s...
Is It Hot In Here, Or Is It Just Me?
January 27, 2022 -- Normally when you think of January you think cold temperatures or winter. But as of late, the markets have been heating us up and not in a good way. Maybe we can compare it to when you’re wearing a thick turtleneck that you...
Don't Fear Uncertainty, Embrace It
January 20, 2022 -- This past week certainly wasn't the destroyer that the first week of the year was, but after a promising bounce following the Monday morning punch to new short-term lows on the major indexes, the sellers did come back to try and finish...
Sometimes The Clash Gets It Right
January 25, 2022 -- By any number of measures, the markets have taken quite a hit. For example, as of January 25th, 2022, the average stock in the Russell 2000 Index has experienced a drawdown of almost 40%, and in the NASDAQ Composite, the average stock...
Have We Hit Some Market Headwinds?
January 12, 2022 -- Many analysts were disappointed by last Friday's job report for December, but we think the headline masks an overall report that shows continued improvement in the labor market and a possible surge in small-business start-ups. On the...
It Makes Complete Sense Now: Bad Is Good And Good Is Bad
January 5, 2022 -- 2021 was the year of a continued virus, rising inflation, and the promise of higher interest rates from the Fed. Not a trifecta of great things, yet the market had its best year out of the last three really good years! So that means...