LPL Market Commentary

Each week the LPL Financial Research team assembles thoughtful insight on market news.

A New Fed Regime: Warsh, Policy Direction, and Treasury Market Consequences

May 11, 2026 | LPL Research

As of early May 2026, the Fed stands on the cusp of one of its more significant leadership transitions in recent memory. Jerome Powell’s term as chair concludes on May 15 after guiding the central bank through the post-pandemic inflation surge and a rate-cutting campaign seemingly on hold, and Kevin Warsh — a former Fed governor, investment banker, and vocal critic of post-2008 monetary policy — appears poised for confirmation. Powell has signaled he will remain on the Board of Governors for an "indefinite period" until the ongoing investigation concludes with finality, providing continuity but explicitly declining any “shadow chair” role. His role as Fed Governor ends January 2028.

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AI Wave Continues to Power Technology Earnings Boom

May 4, 2026 | LPL Research

Alphabet grabbed the spotlight among last Wednesday’s reports as the Google-parent company blew past Wall Street’s expectations. High demand for cloud and AI offerings drove a “meaningful acceleration” in growth, indicating to investors that significant AI investments are paying off. Worries that their main business line — Google search — could be taken over by chatbots, ebbed on signs that the firm has successfully integrated AI into its search offering, while also driving down costs to answer users’ questions with AI.

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American Industrial Renaissance: Fact or Fiction?

April 27, 2026 | LPL Research

The “American Industrial Renaissance” is an investment theme investors and allocators alike have probably been pitched several times, or at the very least heard about. Supply chains for manufactured goods have evolved to become more complex, while U.S. manufacturing employment as a share of total employment has steadily declined, leaving policy makers to grapple with the ramifications of a shrinking manufacturing base. Facing effects ranging from structural employment shifts to fragile supply chains to national security, over the last decade, Washington has been both vocal and active about bringing manufacturing back stateside.

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Rethinking Fixed Income Allocation in a Multi‑Polar World

April 20, 2026 | LPL Research

As we wrote in our recent Rate and Credit View, the case for global bonds has strengthened as the structure of fixed income markets — and the sources of risk within them — have become increasingly asymmetric. The U.S. bond market represents less than half of global fixed income outstanding, yet many portfolios remain overwhelmingly concentrated in U.S. Treasuries and credit, effectively tying outcomes to a single fiscal authority, a single central bank, and domestic yield curves. 

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The Economy Takes Multiple Shocks in Stride

April 13, 2026 | LPL Research

Outside of energy commodities, capital markets posted a downbeat March as cross-asset volatility spiked in response to the outbreak of hostilities in the Mideast, and kicked off April in similar, choppy fashion before posting a swift bounce following last Wednesday’s two-week ceasefire agreement. While a positive breakthrough, it may still be a little too early to sound the ‘all clear’ as the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained. Don’t forget, behind today’s headlines, the economy is still dealing with negative trade and immigration shocks and a positive artificial intelligence (AI) shock.

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Lessons From Past Conflicts for Today’s Stock Market

April 6, 2026 | LPL Research

As strikes on Iran continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, it’s clearly too early for market watchers to stop thinking about geopolitical risk. As discussed in recent commentaries but worth repeating, history shows stocks often recover quickly from wars and other military engagements, especially when economies are resilient and earnings fundamentals remain strong. Improved valuations, the strong earnings outlook, and a still-normal level of volatility suggest the risk‑reward backdrop for stocks is getting more favorable. 

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